Key Takeaways:
•
The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire
combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force
generation efforts appear to allow Russian forces to conduct routine
operational level rotations in Ukraine.
•
Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely
allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized
offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term, but it is
unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in
the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts
or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation.
•
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian efforts to expand Russia’s
defense industrial base (DIB) have yet to fulfill operational
requirements in Ukraine and that munitions shortages will continue to
prompt Russia to source supplies from abroad.
•
Freezing temperatures in Ukraine are likely constraining operations
along the front but will likely create more favorable terrain for
mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks.
• Latvia and Estonia announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on January 11.
•
Russia may be setting information conditions for future escalations
against Latvia by threatening to punish Latvia for closing a likely base
of Russian informational influence in Latvia.
•
European Commission (EC) Defense Industry Spokesperson Johanna Bernsel
clarified on January 11 that European Union (EU) member states will be
able to produce a million shells per year by spring 2024 but that the
delivery of the shells to Ukraine will depend on individual member
states.
•
The US Department of Defense (DoD) Office of the Inspector General
published a report on January 11 that states that the failure to
document certain aid provided to Ukraine in a timely manner is largely
due to DoD limitations but that does not suggest that any of the
material aid has been misappropriated.
•
Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced on January
11 that the Verkhovna Rada withdrew a draft law on mobilization for
revisions after discussions between Ukrainian legislators and political
and military leadership.
•
A Ukrainian official indicated that the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF)
may struggle to compensate for the loss of base infrastructure after
allocating naval assets away from the BSF’s main base of Sevastopol in
occupied Crimea.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued positional engagements along the entire front.
•
Kremlin newswire TASS reported on January 10 that Russian forces will
deploy additional aircraft and vessels and increase the production of
hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles in 2024.
•
The Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations stated on January 10
that it sponsored a trip for 35 Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine
to Mogilev for the New Year holiday during which soldiers taught
children “the basics of life safety” and how to behave in “extreme
situations.”
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