Key Takeaways:
•
A Ukrainian intelligence official reported that Russian forces lack the
necessary operational reserves to conduct simultaneous offensive
efforts in more than one direction in Ukraine.
•
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reiterated
on January 17 that the elimination of Ukrainian statehood and
independence remains one of Russia’s core war aims.
• Ukraine successfully employed a Ukrainian-refurbished hybrid air defense system (FrankenSAM) for the first time.
• Germany and France announced additional military assistance to Ukraine on January 16.
•
The Russian ultranationalist community will likely concretize
xenophobia and insecurities about Russia’s ethnic composition as key
shared principles within the community in 2024, as Russian
ultranationalists continue to seize on incidents involving migrants and
non-ethnic Russian groups to call for anti-migrant policies and express
growing hostility towards nonethnic Russians in Russia.
•
The Kremlin’s ongoing attempt to court the Russian ultranationalist
community will likely generate increasing friction between the Kremlin’s
desired rhetoric and policies concerning migration and interethnic
relations and those of Russian ultranationalists.
•
Significant protests erupted in Baymak, Bashkortostan Republic,
following a Russian court’s guilty verdict for a prominent Bashkort
activist, prompting a swift Russian government response as well as
backlash from the Russian ultranationalist community.
•
Widespread Russian milblogger complaints about an Uzbek community
leader in Russia prompted the Russian Investigative Committee to open a
criminal investigation, suggesting that the Russian government may feel
increasing pressure to respond to milblogger demands as the
ultranationalist information space coalesces around xenophobic and
anti-migrant ideals.
•
The Russian military command continues to convict Russian officers in
cases associated with Ukrainian strikes as part of a likely effort to
improve discipline across the Russian military.
•
The Kremlin continues efforts to expand Russia’s influence in Africa
through the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the MoD-controlled
Africa Corps.
• The threat of US secondary sanctions is reportedly having a large-scale effect on TurkishRussian financial ties.
• Positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact on January 17.
•
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov
confirmed that Russian authorities are increasing the size of the
Rosgvardia contingent in occupied Ukraine to strengthen occupational
control.
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