Key Takeaways:Pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria held the Seventh Congress of Transnistrian Deputies on February 28 and adopted a series of decisions that likely aim to provide the Kremlin with justifications for a wide range of possible escalatory actions against Moldova — actions the Kremlin can pursue both immediately and over the long-term.The Kremlin has yet to signal an immediate route for escalation following the Congress...
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Russia Eyes Gulf of Guinea, JNIM Massacres Civilians in Burkina Faso
Key Takeaways:Togo. Reports of a small and potentially growing number of Russian military advisers in Togo indicate that Russia and Togo are increasing their ties as the Kremlin aims to expand its influence beyond the Sahel in West Africa. The Kremlin likely seeks to use Togo as a logistical node to support its other operations in Africa. Russia may also have a long-term aim of securing an Atlantic Ocean port in Togo, which would support the...
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 29, 2024
Key Takeaways:The PRC Coast Guard patrolled prohibited and restricted waters around Taiwan-controlled Kinmen, likely as part of a PRC strategy to assert sovereignty over the island.The PRC has increased deployments of research vessels in Taiwan’s contiguous zone to assert its territorial claims over Taiwan.The Kuomintang chose defense obstructionist Ma Wen-chun to co-chair the Foreign and National Defense Committee of the Legislative Yuan. Ma proposed...
Iran Update 28FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Gaza City: Palestinian militias have claimed at least 92 attacks
targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun, southeastern Gaza City, between
February 19 and February 28. This high attack rate involving at least
seven Palestinian militias using sophisticated military capabilities
indicates that Palestinian fighters have retained military capacity in
southern Gaza City despite two Israeli clearing operations there.•
The militias...
US Military Theories of Victory for a War with the PRC
The
return of strategic competition and the war in Ukraine have highlighted
the stark risks of conflict with nuclear-armed great powers: Russia and
the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Such a conflict would entail
escalation risks that the United States has not seriously considered
since the Cold War. A key question for the U.S. Department of Defense is
how to prevail in such a war while limiting the scope of escalation. A
better understanding...
Russian Operations Assessment 27FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered
by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a
relatively high tempo of offensive operations aimed at pushing as far as
possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more
cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area. •
Russian forces are likely attempting to create an operational maneuver
force...
ArmyIgnitED Unsigned Tuition Assistance Requests
Date Published: 26 Feb 24
Subject: ArmyIgnitED Unsigned Tuition Assistance (TA) Requests
1. Soldier Signature REQUIRED on Tuition Assistance Requests
a. Soldiers must log into their ArmyIgnitED account (https://www.armyignited.army.mil/)
to check for and sign any unsigned TA Requests. A Soldier signature is
required on all TA Requests. Changes made to a previously submitted TA
Request or a TA Request created on a Soldier’s behalf...
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Russian Operations Assessment 26FEB2024
Key Takeaways: • Sweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26. •
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on February 26 that
officially re-establish the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts,
codifying major Russian military restructuring and reform efforts. •
The formal transfer of regions previously under the responsibility of
the Northern Fleet is likely part...
Iran Update 26FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Northern and Central Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces announced
that its 162nd Division uncovered a Hamas tunnel network connecting the
Central Gaza Governorate to the northern Gaza Strip over the past
several weeks. •
Southern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces continued to conduct
clearing operations in western Khan Younis. Palestinian militias
targeted Israeli forces operating in Abasan al Kabira, east...
Russian Operations Assessment 25FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Russian officials and state media largely refrained from publicly
discussing the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of
Ukraine on February 24, likely in an effort to avoid addressing Russia’s
failure to achieve its stated war aims at significant human costs. •
Russian officials and state-run and state-affiliated TV channels likely
refrained from commenting on the two-year anniversary of the start...
Government Shutdown Impacts on FY24 TA/CA Requests
Date Published: 23 Feb 24
Subject: Potential Government Shutdown Impacts on FY24 Tuition Assistance and Credentialing Assistance Requests
1. Tuition Assistance
a. If Congress does not pass a Budget or Continuing Resolution
before 9 March 2024, approved FY24 Tuition Assistance (TA) Requests may
be cancelled. ACCESS will cancel TA Requests starting on 8 March 2024
at 2359 GMT (1959 EDT) for 9 March 2024 term start...
Iran Update 25FEB2024
Key Takeaways: • Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces continued clearing operations in Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City. •
Southern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces has continued to conduct
clearing operations in western and eastern Khan Younis. • West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least six times in the West Bank. •
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias,...
MGIB Kicker-Do You Have One?
Greetings,We
are not processing as many Kickers as we should, and we should remedy
this. $350 for 36 months can go further than you think. Montgomery GI Bill - Selected Reserve Kicker (Overview)The
Montgomery GI Bill – Selected Reserve (MGIB-SR) Kicker is an
educational assistance supplement that is available to promote
accessions and retention in the SELRES to those members serving in
critical specialties, skills, or units. Military...
Iran Update 22FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Yemen: Iran and the Houthis are likely using their attacks in the Red
Sea and the Gulf of Aden to test and refine their approach to striking
naval targets. •
Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces 162nd Division continued
to conduct clearing operations in Zaytoun, eastern Gaza City. • Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in western Khan Younis. • Political Negotiations:...
Russian Operations Assessment 22FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev said that
Russia would likely have to seize Kyiv sooner or later while identifying
Russia’s possible further territorial objectives in Ukraine. •
Medvedev’s mention of Russia’s possible intentions to occupy Odesa may
be worth noting in light of recent developments in the pro-Russian
breakaway republic of Transnistria in Moldova, the southern tip of which
...
Iran Update 21FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Iran: Iranian sources told Reuters on February 21 that Iran provided
hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to Russia in early
January. Iran’s arms sales to Russia are part of Iran’s efforts to
generate revenue to support its deteriorating economy. • Iran’s provision of these missile systems could improve Russia’s ability to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. • Iraq-Russia: Russian and Iraqi officials...
Russian Operations Assessment 21FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Prominent independent Russian milblogger Andrei Morozov reportedly
committed suicide on February 21 after refusing the Russian military
command’s orders to delete his reports about high Russian casualty rates
around Avdiivka. •
A Ukrainian official denied a recent New York Times (NYT) report that
Russian forces may have captured “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers during
Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast. •
...
Iran Update 20FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Iraq: Russia may be setting conditions to supplant the United States as
a security partner in Iraq in anticipation of the United States
possibly reducing its military presence there. •
Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces launched a new,
“division-wide” clearing operation in the Zaytoun and Shujaiya
neighborhoods in eastern Gaza City. •
Southern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces assessed that it...
Russian Operations Assessment 20FEB2024
Key Takeaways: • Ukraine has been defending itself against illegal Russian military intervention and aggression for 10 years. •
Russia’s grand strategic objective of regaining control of Ukraine has
remained unchanged in the decade since its illegal intervention in
Ukraine began.•
Russia worked hard to obfuscate its grand strategic objectives of
regaining control of Ukraine between 2014 and the start of the
fullscale invasion in...
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
MILPER 24-061 Amendment to the Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) Reserve Component (RC), Captain (CPT), Army Promotion List (APL), Army National Guard of the United States (ARNGUS), Army Reserve Active Guard Reserve (AR AGR), and Army Reserve Non-Active Guard Reserve (AR Non-AGR), Competitive Categories, Promotion Selection Board (PSB) Zones of Consideration
1. This MILPER message will expire no later than (NLT) 22 Feb 25.2. Paragraph 4. b. (1) a is amended to read:(1) Evidence of CIVED completion is an official college or university transcript(s) in their AMHRR and MBF. Transcripts submitted to iPERMS must comply with AR 600-8-104, Required Document List.
MILPER 24-061 AMENDMENT FY24 RC CPT APL PS.pdf
...
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Russian Operations Assessment 19FEB2204
Key Takeaways: •Russian
actors conducted a cyber operation regarding Russia’s seizure of
Avdiivka, likely aimed at generating panic in the Ukrainian information
space and weakening Ukrainian morale.•The
tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has reportedly
dramatically slowed following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka.•Ukrainian
officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two more Russian
fighter aircraft, a Su-34 and...
Monday, February 19, 2024
MILPER 24-057 AC Officer Promotion Sequence Numbers for March 2024
1. This message will expire not later than (NLT) 20 February 2025.2. This message announces the promotion sequence numbers for March 2024. S-1’s will review current promotion lists and sequence numbers to determine individuals eligible for promotion in March. If the S-1 identifies an officer who is not eligible for promotion (e.g., flagged or separated) but received a promotion order, contact HRC officer promotions list management. Likewise, if the...
Iran Update 15FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Iran: Russian Republic of Tatarstan Head Rustam Minnikhanov paid an
official visit to Iran, likely to discuss Russo-Iranian defense
industrial and military cooperation. • Iraq: Some Sunni and Shia Iraqi political factions appear divided on expelling US forces from Iraq. •
Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces reported that it
concluded a two-week long, division-sized raid in western Gaza City. •...
Russian Operations Assessment 15FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Russian forces are conducting a tactical turning movement through
Avdiika likely to create conditions that would force Ukrainian troops to
withdraw from their positions in the settlement. Ukrainian forces have
yet to fully withdraw from the settlement and continue to prevent
Russian forces from making gains that are more significant than the
current incremental Russian advances. •
The Russian offensive effort to...
Iran Update 13FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Southern Gaza Strip: Israel presented a proposal to move displaced
Gazans in Rafah to Egyptian-built tent cities in the southwestern Gaza
Strip, according to the Wall Street Journal. •
Negotiations: Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan claimed on February 12
that Egyptian and Qatar mediators believe that the Hamas ceasefire
proposal that Qatar delivered to Israel “opened a way to reach an
agreement.” •
Hamdan...
Russian Operations Assessment 13FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
The US Senate passed a supplemental appropriations bill that would
provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance to Ukraine, the vast
majority of which would go to US companies and personnel. •
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian
forces are attempting to restore maneuver to the battlefield through
Soviet deep battle theory but are struggling with implementing Soviet
deep battle...
Iran Update 12FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Russia: Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate reported that
elements of Lebanese Hezbollah and the IRGC are training Russian drone
operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria. •
Northern Gaza Strip: The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement stated that it
reestablished contact with its “combat units” in southwestern Gaza
City. • Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces conducted an overnight raid to rescue Hamas-held...
Russian Operations Assessment 12FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that
elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air
Base in Syria. •
The Russian State Duma is considering a bill to restrict actors that
the Russian government designates as “undesirable” from entering Russia,
likely as part of ongoing efforts to censor opposition...
Russian Operations Assessment 11FEB2024
Key Takeaways: •
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General
Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing
current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.•
Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier
dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as
a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults. •
Ukrainian military...
