Key Takeaways:
•
Russian forces are conducting a tactical turning movement through
Avdiika likely to create conditions that would force Ukrainian troops to
withdraw from their positions in the settlement. Ukrainian forces have
yet to fully withdraw from the settlement and continue to prevent
Russian forces from making gains that are more significant than the
current incremental Russian advances.
•
The Russian offensive effort to capture Avdiivka underscores the
Russian military’s inability to conduct a successful operational
envelopment or encirclement in Ukraine.
•
The potential Russian capture of Avdiivka would not be operationally
significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate
informational and political victories.
• The Russian command reportedly reorganized the command structures of the Russian grouping of forces in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted a relatively larger series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 14 to 15.
• Ukrainian security forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against an oil depot in Kursk Oblast.
•
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to elaborate on an amorphous
ideology for Russia to support geopolitical confrontation with the West
by attempting to portray Russia as the leader of an international
anti-Nazi movement.
•
Putin intentionally misrepresented a statement from US Secretary of
State Antony Blinken in an attempt to promote pseudo-history aimed at
denying Ukrainian statehood.
•
Russian sources claimed that the Russian military officially removed
Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov and
replaced him with the BSF’s Chief of Staff Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk.
•
Select members of the US-led coalition the Ukraine Defense Contact
Group (also known as the Ramstein format) formally launched an air
defense coalition and agreed to form a drone coalition and demining
coalition to support Ukraine following the group’s 19th meeting in
Brussels on February 14.
•
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO and Ukraine
will create a joint analysis, training, and education center in Poland
following the meetings of NATO Defense Ministers in Brussels on February
15.
•
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Bakhmut,
Avdiivka, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
•
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Uralvagonzavod plant in
Sverdlovsk Oblast, one of Russia’s largest tank producers, on February
15 to promote Russian efforts to expand Russia’s defense industrial base
(DIB).
•
Head of Ukraine’s nuclear operating enterprise Energoatom Petro Kotin
stated that the situation at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power
Plant (ZNPP) is becoming more dangerous due to Russian activity near and
at the plant.
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