Key Takeaways:
•
Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered
by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a
relatively high tempo of offensive operations aimed at pushing as far as
possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more
cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area.
•
Russian forces are likely attempting to create an operational maneuver
force for the exploitation of recent Russian advances in the Avdiivka
direction.
•
The Russian command likely hopes that the reorganization of command
structures will establish more cohesive Russian grouping of forces
throughout the theater in Ukraine.
•
Recent developments in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region
of Moldova, are unlikely to pose a military threat to Ukraine and will
more likely impact Moldova’s European Union (EU) integration prospects.
ISW is amending its warning forecast in light of continued Transnistrian
officials’ statements that the upcoming Congress of Transnistrian
Deputies will discuss Moldovan economic policies, likely related to
changes to Moldova’s Customs Code that went into effect on January 1,
2024.
•
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to highlight recent
Russian tactical successes in Ukraine as substantial battlefield
victories for political purposes ahead of the upcoming Russian
presidential election. Shoigu additionally highlighted Russia’s Central
and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD) to posture against supposed
anti-Russian activity in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
•
Ukrainian forces have reportedly shot down two Russian Su-34s on
February 27, the tenth downed Russian military aircraft within roughly
as many days.
•
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on February 27 that the
ongoing Russian information campaign to demoralize Ukrainian society
will intensify between March and May 2024.
•
Russia likely tested an element of its Sovereign Internet on February
27, likely in an effort to strengthen control over individual aspects of
the Russian information space.
• Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements across the theater.
•
A Ukrainian official warned that Russia seeks to ramp up force
generation efforts in occupied Ukraine following the formal integration
of occupied and claimed Ukrainian territories into the Russian Southern
Military District (SMD). • Russian authorities are reportedly
systematizing the adoption of deported Ukrainian children in Russia.
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